Introduction to South Korea’s Demographic Challenge
South Korea faces a significant demographic challenge, with the lowest birth rate globally. In 2023, the country experienced historically low fertility rates, dropping to 0.72, an 8% decline from 2022. Rather than intervening in housing prices or raising wages, the South Korean government’s proposed solution involves investing in efficient rail mobility to address this issue. The plan aims to construct high-speed trains connecting the capital to peripheral areas, reducing commuting time and potentially encouraging family expansion.
The Case for High-Speed Rail
With the current birth rate falling below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, South Korea’s population of 51 million faces a bleak future. If this downward trend persists, projections suggest the population could plummet to 26.8 million by 2100. To counteract this decline, the government proposes investing €92 billion in six ultra-fast metro lines linking the capital to its outskirts.
The objective is to reduce the lengthy two-and-a-half-hour round-trip commute endured by many South Koreans living in bedroom communities like Dongtan, located outside Seoul. By shortening travel times, individuals may have more time to dedicate to family life. The new train line connecting the capital to Dongtan, projected by Great Train eXpress (GTX), is expected to complete the journey in just 19 minutes, traveling at speeds of up to 180 km/h.
According to Transport Minister Park Sang-woo, the six new high-speed underground lines, with a budget of 134 trillion won (approximately €92 billion), will all be operational by 2035. Sang-woo believes this initiative will enhance work-life balance and potentially boost birth rates by enabling residents to spend more time with their families.
Historical Government Measures
Previous government efforts to stimulate birth rates have included substantial investments in monetary subsidies, childcare services, and fertility treatment support. However, despite financial assistance, housing subsidies, free taxis, and even paid hospital accounts for families, these solutions have failed to yield desired results. More creative measures, such as hiring Southeast Asian nannies or exempting men from military service if they have three children before age 30, have also fallen short.
Housing Affordability Challenges
Housing costs in South Korea vary depending on location, occupancy, housing type, and area. In Seoul alone, housing prices have surged by over 50% in recent years, far outpacing average salaries. A one-bedroom apartment on the outskirts of Seoul typically costs around $334 (450,000 KRW), with additional transportation costs for commuting to the city center.
Additional Financial Pressures
In addition to housing expenses, South Koreans face significant costs associated with private education. Seoul’s birth rate is the lowest in the country (0.55), attributed in part to families’ need for supplemental education, as failure to participate in extracurricular activities may result in children being labeled as “failures” in a highly competitive society. Nearly 94% of Korean parents bear these costs, averaging up to $700 per child per month.
Social Awareness and Work-Life Balance
Beyond economic challenges, South Korea grapples with shifting social attitudes to achieve the desired fertility rate of 2.1. Koreans endure notoriously long workdays, often spanning up to ten hours, with an additional maximum of two hours of commuting. With little time left for essential activities like eating and housekeeping, energy and time are in short supply.
Moreover, South Korean women face difficulties retaining their jobs if they take maternity leave, while the percentage of men who leave their jobs for childcare is minimal (7%) compared to the 70% of new mothers. Gender wage gaps persist, with female unemployment significantly higher than male unemployment.
Conclusion: Beyond High-Speed Trains
While high-speed trains offer an efficient solution, they alone cannot address South Korea’s urgent demographic challenges. Priorities should include improving housing affordability, reducing working hours, increasing wages, and promoting family-friendly policies to achieve a sustainable solution to the country’s declining birth rate.